Analogy – Estimating Software development is like estimating drive times
Posted by robkraft on February 12, 2010
Estimating a software development project is a little like estimating driving time. If you are estimating something you do over and over, like your drive to and from work, then you can provide estimates that are very accurate. However, there is always a chance for unexpected traffic jams and bad weather that could unexpectedly make your estimate grossly inaccurate.
When estimating a trip that you have not taken before, the accuracy of the estimate decreases with your knowledge of the possible paths and the accuracy also decreases with longer distance. Is it not the same with software? Our estimates become less accurate when there are more things we need to do that we are not familiar with, and as the scope of the project increases.